Research

Grading the Aug 26 call against criteria written down two days earlier. The baselines mostly held — but my scorecard was missing an entire column: the balance sheet.

Nvidia reports on the evening of the 26th; Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on the 28th. Before those two events, roughly 40 hours apart, here is the grading sheet — not a beat-or-miss call.

Three trillion dollars has already reached the books; the renewal has not. A record of preparing for what hasn't landed to land, rather than chasing the fall of what has.

Google was the start — before the four report, reading them early from the same data

The direction staked before the earnings, and the result that came on the 22nd

Financing that has shifted from own cash to debt is hard to reverse — this piece was written before the earnings

The cash flow of the side buying memory is narrowing toward 2028

Open the source, and the bear case sits in 2028, not 2027

Four companies just posted the best numbers in their history. The same week, their stocks fell 25 to 43 percent. This is a column about what the market was selling when it clearly wasn't selling the earnings — because held against the panic, the price sheet points somewhere the income statement can't see.