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Last column I asked why supply can't catch up. This one asks the scarier question on the other side: build all of it, and does anyone actually show up? Part of the answer I can put on a map — 28 gigawatts under construction in the US alone. Part of it I'm guessing at. A column about a buyer list that got longer, written by someone still sorting measurement from hope.
The textbook says the memory cycle fixes itself: shortage lifts prices, profits fund new fabs, supply floods back, prices fall. The first three steps are happening right now — capex just hit a record. The fourth isn't. This is a column about why the loop's last link looks broken, written by someone who isn't sure yet.
For two years this work read the chip supply chain as a sequence — Japan leading Taiwan, Taiwan leading Korea, a lag you could trade on. Testing it killed that idea. Then a wider look brought a different version of it back, with one catch: the cycle is still there, but right now it can't be read.
Oracle just had its best quarter in fifteen years, and the market sold it. The number that scared investors is the same number that should tell you where to look next.
For three days the tape sold AI chips on glut fear. The same three days, the suppliers underneath printed record revenue — and rising prices. Here's the tell.