Semiconductor supply-demand signals, ordered by the questions investors actually ask. Experimental signals labeled.
AI Infra Investment Sustainability
+40
Critical Overheating
Base Pressure
+25/25
CAPEX/OCF = 70.3% (avg 46.5%)
Top 0% historically · 33 windows
Reality Check
+15/25
Reading: AI Hyperscaler 4 (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) spending 70.3% of operating cash flow on capex. Historical avg is 46.5%. Currently at all-time high. (Custom composite indicator, not an industry benchmark)
CAPEX/OCF Trend (TTM, 4-Company Agg.)
As of Q1'26 · 2026-08-22
Combines hyperscaler CAPEX, memory maker HBM allocation, and TSMC packaging load to assess HBM market conditions.
5 companies, total CAPEX $132B, 3/5 direction up
HBM rev $27B, 28% of DRAM (SK Hynix $12.2B, Samsung $10.3B, Micron $4.2B)
TSMC rev $1270B, QoQ +12.0%, YoY +36%
| 80+ | Very Tight — supply shortage |
| 60-80 | Tight — demand exceeds supply |
| 40-60 | Balanced — supply-demand stable |
| 20-40 | Loosening — supply catching up |
| 0-20 | Oversupply — investment caution |
Based on earnings filings. Price-direction proxy in data accumulation (target: 2026-09). Excluded from score until validated. Base FX: ₩1,450/$.
Geometric mean of fact axes (GPU·DC) · CapEx sentiment separated as narrative
Geometric mean of GPU rental prices and DC construction pipeline measures AI infrastructure supply-demand tension.
H100 $1.47 → $1.47 (+0.0%)
Construction 2173MW / Total 4388MW = 50% pipeline
CapEx news: 102 positive, 10 negative out of 117 (86% positive)
| 80+ | Overheating — construction lags demand |
| 60-80 | Tight — supply short, build urgent |
| 40-60 | Balanced — construction meets demand |
| 20-40 | Expanding — construction decelerating |
| 0-20 | Excess pipeline — massive build underway |
Circle=capacity, color=stage. Construction pipeline dwarfs operational
Some coords/capacity note-inferred · CONUS only (excl. Alaska & overseas) · Weekly refresh
Private-led, no state procurement. Asset proxy, not a stock signal
Big-tech captive demand (Meta·Google·Amazon·Microsoft)
52 facilities
Meta, Microsoft
AI-native GPU service (CoreWeave·xAI·Oracle/Stargate)
13 facilities
Non-big-tech developers — largest single pipeline
26 facilities
MW = construction-phase estimates · Mapping: manual rules (update when new companies added)
Color=ownership model. US is private-led, the world is state-led
Announced vs building distinguished, source-verified · GPU units heterogeneous (classified by model) · Semi-annual refresh
Color = ownership model. SWF/procurement/subsidy patterns. 5 verified countries only
사우디 파트너십 → 1차 18,000 GB300 인도, 3년 최대 600,000 발표(2025-11). 미 재무부 수출허가 throttle 下(2025-11-20 조건부). 500MW 목표. xAI가 첫 고객
Stargate UAE 1GW 클러스터(1차 200MW, 2026 가동), 35,000 Blackwell 확보. Mubadala/MGX 국부펀드. Microsoft $15.2B 투자·美 수출허가 첫 케이스(주권인데 미국 의존 아이러니). G42 지분 MS 보유
34,000 GPU 가동 중(Rs 115-150/GPU-hr, 시장가 -42%), 2026말 100,000 목표. 예산 ₹10,372cr($1.24B) 5년 승인이나 집행은 4% 수준(발표→ 진행). Tier 1 무제한 접근 우선
1.46조원($989M)로 13,000 GPU 조달(Naver/NHN/Kakao 3사), 1만+ 배포 중(2026.2~). 2028년 52,000 → 2030년 260,000 목표. 2026 "계획→실행" 전환
$2B CAD($1.42B) 5년(Budget 2024). 공공 슈퍼컴 $1B + 민간 $700M. Cohere에 $240M 첫 집행(2024.12). SCIP 프로그램 가동
€109B($118B) 동원(2025.2, France2030+민간+국제 이니셔). Mistral Compute 18,000 GB200(Essonne 40MW). ★Mistral 최대주주 ASML(11%) → 유럽 주권AI↔유럽 장비 연결. OVHcloud/Scaleway 주권 클라우드
EU InvestAI €200B 동원/€20B 공공으로 4~5개 기가팩토리(각 ~100,000 칩, 기존 AI팩토리 4배). 77개 제안·16개국·60개 부지. 2027 1호 착공. ($21.5B≈€20B)
GENIAC 2024.2~ 운영(3차 24개 프로젝트, 2025.7). GPU 사용료 보조 구조. FY2026 AI/반도체 ¥1.5조($10B). "하이퍼스케일러 주도→국가규모 인프라로 전환"(IDC)
Context (unverified — next update)
Common pattern: SWF/budget + cloud + Nvidia GPU + data sovereignty clause. States now "buy" chips too
Measures supply chain stress via customer-supplier temperature gap and price-volume divergence.
When DRAM spot price movement diverges from export value movement, it signals a supply-demand imbalance.
→ Price and volume moving together — supply-demand balanced
Gap between news sentiment (positive ratio) and actual export/DRAM data. Excessive optimism vs reality signals overheating.
※ Fact axis is a quarterly/filing-updated metric. Segment fact (esp. HBM) = 3-company filing HBM-mention trend + SK Hynix inventory-days (DSI); it moves only when quarterly/half-year filings land — not daily. Sentiment axis updates daily.
Direction of analyst EPS estimate revisions. Rising upgrade ratio = improving earnings outlook; falling = downgrade cycle.
• 7d upgrade ratio > 30d ratio → accelerating (recent revisions more positive)
• 7d upgrade ratio < 30d ratio → decelerating (recent revisions more negative)
Shows whether semiconductors are outperforming or underperforming the broader market. Rising ratio = semis outperform.
Shows how hot each semiconductor value chain segment is relative to its own history. Each is an independent thermometer, not a cross-segment comparison.
• 50 = neutral vs own history. 65+ = Hot, 35- = Cold.
• KR 89 > TW 41 means "KR momentum is hotter," not that KR is bigger than TW in absolute terms.
• Score = price momentum + earnings/export YoY. Weights and axes vary by segment.
• Materials score updates less frequently (quarterly earnings).
Accumulating sentiment data...
This data is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Correlation does not imply causation.