Premium · Cycle
No stock prices. No sentiment. Just spot data diagnosing the semiconductor market.
| Signal | Meaning | Good Direction | Latest | Strict | Calibrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAM Spot Trend | Avg price change across DDR4/DDR5/HBM products in the data window | ↑ rising = supply tightening | +9.5% | +1 | +1 |
| Memory DSI QoQ Strict ±5d penalizes any DSI move. Calibrated ±15d treats small moves as noise (normal seasonal swing, HBM-ramp inventory build). | Memory-sector inventory-days change vs prior quarter | ↓ falling = inventory absorbed | +6.0d | −1 | 0 |
| Korea Semi Exports YoY | Latest BOK monthly trade-index growth (real end-demand proxy) | ↑ rising = real demand strength | +64.7% | +1 | +1 |
| ODM Big 4 Avg YoY | Avg YoY of Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn, Inventec monthly revenue | ↑ rising = cloud capex strength continues | +46.8% | +1 | +1 |
Spot prices tell the cycle direction
Source: DRAMeXchange · USD per chip · daily session average
Source: DART (Korea) + FinMind / MOPS (Taiwan) · quarterly · sector median across companies in each bucket
Exports & revenue prove real demand
Source: Bank of Korea ECOS · monthly · Export Index (2020 = 100)
Where institutional & Big Tech money is flowing
Quarterly position changes by curated hedge funds and asset managers, per SEC 13F filings.
SOXX (iShares Semiconductor) and SMH (VanEck Semiconductor) — barometers of sector capital flows.
Physical AI infrastructure buildout pace
$0.33 ~ $0.33
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