Research

Nvidia reports on the evening of the 26th; Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote on the 28th. Before those two events, roughly 40 hours apart, here is the grading sheet — not a beat-or-miss call.

It isn't the equipment order book that's locked — it's Japan's labor code, gas supply, and factory floor being re-wired around it in real time.

The week Samsung redefined HBM as a compute layer at Hot Chips — while NVIDIA passed a 15% price hike straight to its customers.

Three trillion dollars has already reached the books; the renewal has not. A record of preparing for what hasn't landed to land, rather than chasing the fall of what has.

Google was the start — before the four report, reading them early from the same data

The direction staked before the earnings, and the result that came on the 22nd

Financing that has shifted from own cash to debt is hard to reverse — this piece was written before the earnings

The cash flow of the side buying memory is narrowing toward 2028